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UK's European Union membership referendum 2016 (Brexit).

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
How much would make a serious impact?

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allthumbs

Member
Now I admit I am a little conflicted, given the downward momentum and spiral of the British Pound I may finally be able to afford a pair of P3's !
 

allthumbs

Member
Johnson's nightmare must be either ending up as the Churchillian "voice in the wilderness" or as Chamberlain waving a piece of paper above his head and declaring a "deal for out time".

I can imagine David Cameron hurriedly scribbling this on the back of an envelope "this'll do", and bee-lining it to Rebekah Brooks' place to tell her all about his great idea.


Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain a member of the European Union
Leave the European Union
 

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
"...execrable garbage..."

Inevitable, disgraceful, deceitful, appauling .... this country should be utterly ashamed of itself. I am.

Michael Gove almost managed to keep a straight face, as he became the latest person forced to lie for Boris Johnson. ‘The buck stops here,’ said Boris Johnson two weeks ago. No one should be surprised that the buck is already being shipped at high speed to Brussels
..... The curse of the Downing Street steps has struck again. With the possible exception of the door-opening jingle sung by David Cameron, it is now a firmly established rule of contemporary British politics that whatever a prime minister says, outside that black door, the opposite will happen. Theresa May promised to tackle Britain’s various “burning injustices” which are too many to list here, other than to point out that she left office three years later with them all burning far brighter than they did when she started.

It is not three years, but a mere fortnight, since Boris Johnson announced he would take “personal responsibility” for whatever happens with Brexit. “Never mind the backstop, the buck stops here,” he said. And lo, what do you know? Through some mad science, the buck appears to be making its way, entirely of its own volition of course, to Brussels.

Boris Johnson had been prime minister for barely 24 hours before he told Angela Merkel and anyone else who would listen that the only way to a Brexit deal is via “the abolition of the backstop.”

Sure as night follows day, the EU has been forced to repeat, as it has done for more than a year, that it will not be abolishing the Irish backstop. And it is this that has summoned Michael Gove in front of the TV news cameras to announce the following. “'The EU is saying they’'re not interested. They are saying, ‘No we don’t want to talk.’ I think that is wrong and sad. It’s not in Europe’s interests.”'

Vaguely to Gove’s credit, he almost managed to keep a straight face while he came out with what he knows is execrable garbage.

No one should be surprised, at all, by the Johnson strategy. To make impossible demands that he knows cannot be met, then blame the other side for refusing to concede to them, is to be both a liar and a spoilt little child all at the same time, which of course is precisely what he is.

And we should be even less surprised by Gove’s willingness to stifle his chuckles and do the lying for him.

Three years ago, Michael Gove was happy to launch a Vote Leave video showing fighting in the Turkish parliament, combined with lies about how much the UK government was paying to ensure Turkey joined the EU.

A few months later, he would be desperately citing studies that claimed the EU referendum, which he had personally helped to win by personally scaremongering about Turkish immigration, had in fact made the UK “more welcoming to migrants”.

Which, to a certain extent, it had, in the sense that the tale of the Good Samaritan is about being more welcoming to Jews who'’ve been beaten up. It'’s just that Michael Gove is not so well placed to tell it, given he’'s the one who’'d been doing the beating.

Still, this is the Gove way. Who cares about the simple, blindingly obvious truth, when there'’s a clever counterfactual debate-winning argument to be found?

You don'’t get to be as big a legend down at the Oxford Union as Michael Gove once was, and then find yourself having to do anything so belittling as take any personal responsibility for the stunningly inevitable consequences of your own actions.

The buck stops here? Not a chance. The buck can sing the Cameron refrain of “do-do-do-do-do... right” for as long as it wants, nobody is going to be opening that Downing Street door to it for a second.
Here.​
 

allthumbs

Member
Was the Republic of Ireland's border simply overlooked, forgotten or arrogantly ignored by the Brexiteers or was its eradication a foregone conclusion as part of some kind of cunning Baldrickian plan?

The long and whining road of Farage and Johnson has been the {claimed} imposition of collectivist rules from Brussels upon Britain (England really), but what I see from here {Australia} is a total disregard of Irish sovereignty and its self determination to remain part of the EU by the UK.

Part of that determination is solidarity with EU which Britain has decided to forego. Hard Cheese.

Is there or has there been any study into the reasons why people who voted for Brexit did so? I imagine it was for a whole lot of complex and multiple reasons that are not reflected in the simplicity of the question asked at the referendum.

Orson Welles on Charles Foster Kane (William Randolph Hearst), sound familiar.

A man like Kane, Welles said, believes that “politics as the means of communication, and indeed the nation itself, is all there for his personal pleasuring.” The audience he craves he also hates. “Such men as Kane always tend toward the newspaper and entertainment world,” Welles said. “They combine a morbid preoccupation with the public with a devastatingly low opinion of the public mentality and moral character.”
 

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
"Only a government of national unity can deliver us from no deal..."

Be not afraid. There’s hope that the constitutional atrocities planned by the prime minister and Downing Street’s ‘dark lord’, Dominic Cummings, can and will be prevented by good MPs who will put saving the country ahead of their party.

Most of these will be Labour, Scottish National party, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru, Green, Change UK and stray independents. But noblest of all will be Conservative MPs who, like the burghers of Calais (whose memorial they pass every day), will sacrifice their careers for the good of all. No “golden age” awaits Johnson: he will be hoist on his own outrageous hubris.

“The majority in parliament against no deal is bigger and more resolute than ever,” says the shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer. The Tory rebels agree. They are aghast at the arrogant strutting of Cummings who is, says one, the best recruiting sergeant for rebellion on the Tory backbenches. The No 10 supremo’s careless contempt affronts many Tory MPs – and he is defiantly in contempt of parliament.

The cabinet of sycophants, signed up to no deal in blood to get their jobs, are told to say nothing without permission from No 10 – that is, Cummings.

The fight is on. MPs will struggle to stop a no-deal Brexit by seizing control of the parliamentary timetable, but Johnson has refused to rule out proroguing parliament to prevent them. Returning on 3 September, Labour will call a vote of no confidence in the Johnson government, and this will be the moment of truth: are there enough burghers of Calais on the Tory benches? Rebels reckon there could be 30 or 40.

Assuming only a Kate Hoey or two on Labour’s side fails to back it, there are 14 days in which Johnson, still prime minister, tries and fails to form a government. He is legally obliged to call an election, but Cummings said over the weekend the date would be set for after 31 October, Brexit day. The country will crash out without a vote, legal but outrageous. The only way that can be prevented is by a manoeuvre itself so outrageous it makes you gasp to contemplate it. Anti-no-dealers would set up a temporary government of national unity to outvote Johnson.

The only purpose of this “government” would be to ask the EU for a delay, to conduct a referendum and a general election. Let the people decide, that would be its sole purpose.

Who would be the interim prime minister? It would need someone from Labour, since the plan relies on Labour to make it happen. Let it not be an active player in future leadership or government, but a statesperson respected on all sides who would be no future threat to anyone. Rebel Tories suggest several names, but one stands out: Margaret Beckett, a previous interim Labour leader, who would be trusted to do only what the crisis demands – call an election and a referendum.

This is no centrist party stalking horse, but purely a mechanism to ensure the country does not crash out of the EU without a deal unless the people actively vote for it. No deal was not even mentioned as an option in the referendum, where staying in the single market and customs union were regularly promised by Brexiteers.

What seems likely is that Johnson and Cummings are planning to frame a future election as a fight between themselves as “the people”, with MPs usurpers of the people’s will. The opposite is the case. As no deal doesn’t have majority support, they would struggle throughout a long campaign to explain why they were denying both the people and MPs a vote.
Here
 

allthumbs

Member
Back in 1972, a British Government Appointed Representative of the Queen, our Governor General {here in Australia}, (under dubious circumstances) dismissed a popularly elected Labor Government. They were heady times and that decision has left a scar. Much of the correspondence between the GG and the Palace remain locked away.

It seems that Her Majesty should be having a close look at the constitutional powers and what role she may have to play if Johnson and Cummings have their way. I said it once and I'll say it again, "failed state".

Whatever the outcome, like here in the antipodes, it will leave a scar, ours has faded over time, but a fresh wound takes time to heal and sometimes it never does.
 

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
I have just read, from cover to cover, a printed and bound copy of the House of Commons Exiting the European Committee report The consequences of "No Deal" for UK business - 14th Report of session 2017-19, HC 2560, published 19 July 2019.

Here.

What comes across loud and clear is of the multilayered intertwining of the legal and regulatory system between the UK and Europe for the benefit of all.

Most chilling is the section on fake pharmaceutical products and how the UK will be isolated from the cross-EU database that UK pharmacies draw on every time they scan and dispense medicines over the counter. People will die.
 

Milosz

Active member
Is there or has there been any study into the reasons why people who voted for Brexit did so? I imagine it was for a whole lot of complex and multiple reasons that are not reflected in the simplicity of the question asked at the referendum.
Reasons might have been complex but general picture is blindingly obvious: spoiled brats who have forgotten the real source of prosperity for them and their parents that has been free, peaceful, democratic and united Europe and were short-sighted and irresponsible enough to deny the same future for their children (if they had any). Their grandparents shed blood in WW2 for that vision of Europe.

Brexit referendum was like turkeys voting for Christmas. But real culprits are those who manipulated those turkeys into believing their lies and propaganda in the first place. Now to reap the fruits...
 
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allthumbs

Member
From the few studies I have seen the "immigration question" was a deciding factor but interestingly enough although hard to verify from this distance is the truth behind the geographical divide North vs South and the framing of the decision that the "working class"
 

allthumbs

Member
Not sure what happened above, there was a paragraph or two more, but to save time a recent study had in one of their conclusions based on the evidence was that:
"Overall, our findings indicate that Labour voters with observables that put them in the Leave camp – male, older, less educated, less likely to be in employment, etc. – are significantly more likely to express a preference for the status quo of remaining in the EU. Voters with similar socio-economic profiles who identify with the Conservative Party are more likely to vote Leave. This suggests the potential importance of other characteristics not in the data set, for instance psychological traits such as openness as well as attitudes towards national identity. "
It surprised me but then again it really didn't.

 

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
Our Auditors have authorised me to make a significant donation to a cause that I deem will reduce the risk to this business should the U.K. exit the EU without an ongoing arrangement. Subsequently I have written to Sir Nicholas Soames, our local MP and a signatory to this weeks 21-MP letter to PM Johnson, asking for his suggestion as to beneficiaries. He is on vacation.

What suggestions do you have? I have the gravest fear that in the event of a 'no deal' that the shape and substance of the UK audio business, only viable through exports, will be irreversibly damaged, further financially strained and inevitably slide into overseas ownership. Whilst Harbeth is in a uniquely strong position, it is a matter of fact that the industry as a whole is stretched and a triple shock to the system of rising material costs through currency weakness, uncertainty over vital imported material supplies and the potential of production lines at a stop as the smooth flow of exports ceases. Anyone who trivialises this prospect is grossly irresponsible.
 
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willem

Well-known member
The economic fallout is increasing, with the pound slipping away, and this is surely only the beginning. For an export business this is not necessarily bad news, even though the cost of imported components will go up, and probably also the salaries of your staff who will have to pay more for their imported food etc. Domestic demand is likely to slacken, and the challenge is to make up with more exports. The continuing devaluation of the pound may facilitate this, but the administrative and customs obstacles will be large. Many EU countries have already set up new customs facilities and procedures, but the UK is hopelessly behind.

The two things to do in the short run are first to invest quite seriously in a large stock of imported components and make a list of component alternatives (and forget absolutely nothing, because every component may be mission critical in this). Second, you will have to plan meticulously with your importers and transport handling companies to ensure that there are no hiccups that jeopardize the export business.

I am sure you have already planned all this, even if such measures cost serious money and in particular tie up capital. The next phase for the longer term will be to see how the new market conditions will play out. That is very hard to predict, and in particualr now that the world economy is slowing down, with economies like Germany and the UK beginning to contract and the risk of increasing economic madness from the USA. Cutting costs while maintaining quality will be more important than ever.
 

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
I do not believe that the falling pound stimulates sales overseas. That would make the assumption - and I see no evidence for this - that importers (generally) pass on what is in effect a discount to their retail stores and they in turn to the consumer. I really doubt that happens.

We hear that the reduced foot fall in the UK high street is worrying many 'bricks and mortar' stores. And yet, I work alongside the ever optimists who are wholly convinced that 'everything will be just fine'. Where we are at now as a country is as I expected on minute one after the referendum result was announced, hence this thread. My opinion has not changed: this is the road to ruin.
 

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
...The two things to do in the short run are first to invest quite seriously in a large stock of imported components and make a list of component alternatives (and forget absolutely nothing, because every component may be mission critical in this). Second, you will have to plan meticulously with your importers and transport handling companies to ensure that there are no hiccups that jeopardize the export business.
...
Thanks for your thoughts. It's quite a lonely position I find myself in. Two comment on your points above:

It has literally just dawned on me that the reason we have not invested in components (although we have no difficulty whatever funding that) is because others here, as I reported, do not share the same concerns and expectations as me concerning logjam in the import/export supply chain, and certain assumptions have been made to just nudge-up safety stocks. So, thanks for the impetus - I have just had a short meeting with colleagues and given them a substantial cash budget such that they report back to me by the end of the day what piece parts/suppliers they will invest my money in, and raise POs immediately. Yes, it is very late indeed, but I have to take personal control over this.

Second - no matter which freight/logistics/government advisors you turn to, nobody can say anything useful. It's all guesswork, supposition and wishful thinking.
 

A.S.

Harbeth UK
Staff member
Remainers will do anything to stop Brexit, except install Corbyn as PM. Why? Many believe a Corbyn-led government is as toxic as Brexit itself. But MPs’ options are running out ...

‘This is hardest of all for Labour pro-Europeans, for the obvious reason that Corbyn is technically their leader. Many of them fervently wish he wasn’t.’

Brexiters stop at nothing to get what they want and remainers stop at everything. The laws of political motion then dictate which direction things move.
Jeremy Corbyn has written to MPs inviting them to install him in Downing Street, having deposed Boris Johnson with a vote of no confidence. His tenure would, he promises, be “strictly time-limited” – long enough to call a general election and seek the necessary article 50 extension to conduct a ballot.

For some MPs, the objection to a single day of Corbyn rule, even for a tactical purpose, is visceral and moral
For Corbyn this is the simplest route out of the current mess. There is a government hell-bent on doing something that a majority of MPs oppose and believe to be ruinous – hurtling off a Brexit cliff-edge. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act gives the Commons 14 days to organise a replacement when an incumbent government is defeated in a no-confidence vote. Who else is going to lead that administration if not the leader of Her Majesty’s opposition? In constitutional terms he is the obvious candidate; probably the only candidate.
Here.
 

willem

Well-known member
That is indeed the sad irony: like Johnson Corbyn cares more for his own position than for the impact on the country. Step aside for a moderate Labour leader, and Brexit is over.
 

ssfas

Well-known member
After the Tsar Nicholas 2 was deposed in early 1917 there were three provisional governments seeking to install a populist democracy for the good of the people. An election was called and before results were known the Bolsheviks decided to take over (for the record, they are believed to have come second) led by Mr Lenin pursuing a purely ideological brand of Marxism. He was utterly ruthless and transformed the country in 3 months. The rest is history, except they also decided on the official version of history as well.

What worries people with any perspective is that if you give a Communist an inch, he takes a mile. Corbyn is just attempting a power grab so he can impose a 5 Year Plan and his version of collectivisation.

It should also be remembered that MI6 was formed immediately after the Russian Revolution of 1917 to seek and destroy Communists and Anarchists plotting the same thing for the UK. The Labour Party still sing The Red Flag and call each other comrades, but the Ruskies gave up on that 30 years ago.
 
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